NEW POLL: Perriello Moves Virginia's 5th District Into a “Dead Heat”

New Survey Shows Race in a Statistical Tie; Voters Put Perriello Ahead After Hearing about McGuire’s Record

CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA — New polling in Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District finds Tom Perriello neck-and-neck with incumbent John McGuire with just 30 days to the election. Perriello moves into a substantial lead after voters learn more about McGuire’s record. The data confirms that voters are eager for change in Washington and underscore VA-05 as a major Democratic pickup opportunity this cycle.

“We see voters sprinting our way, because costs are insane, the corruption is out of control, and McGuire won’t even show voters the respect of a public explanation for why he voted for this chaos,” Perriello said about the poll. “That’s why so many people asked to be part of Republicans for Perriello, and why the momentum is building for our coalition for common sense and a representative who will put the people of this district ahead of any President or special interest group.”

The poll, conducted by Expedition Strategies, shows McGuire leading Perriello 46% to 45% on an initial ballot, within the poll’s margin of error. After voters hear about McGuire’s record, the race flips, with Perriello opening a 5-point lead, 47% to 42%.

This week also saw the launch of Republicans for Perriello, a set of prominent local leaders who endorsed Perriello and criticized John McGuire for betraying conservative principles. The group included former GOP Representative Denver Riggleman, longtime

Republican operative Paul Wright, Coddy Johnson, a Senior Political Advisor to President George W. Bush, and Henry Frazier, a former staffer for the late conservative Senator John Warner.

Perriello previously represented Virginia’s Fifth District, the only Democrat in a generation to have flipped a congressional district west of Richmond. He has spent 20 years leading non-profit organizations and campaigns to increase wages, expand affordable healthcare, and protect constitutional rights. Tom has also served multiple tours as a U.S. Special Envoy, leading complex international negotiations, and served as Special Advisor to the Prosecutor of the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

METHODOLOGY: Expedition Strategies conducted 400 total interviews in VA-05 with a sample of likely 2026 general election voters. The interviews were conducted September 21 - 24, 2026. The margin of error for overall results is ±4.90% and higher among subgroups.

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